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Dominate, Divest, Dedicate, Deliver – The Elliott Memo Appendix

Greetings from the Windy City, where yours truly (and the Editor) spent some time sightseeing, working, and enjoying the architecture (the Trump Tower is “huge” – see pic at the end of the TSB).  This week, we have space to cover two key events – the September 10 Apple product announcement and the Elliott Management memo to AT&T.

  

Apple monthly plans 

The Apple Announcement:  Waiting for the Other (Apple Card) Shoe to Drop

On Tuesday, Apple announced a slew of new products including the iPhone 11, iPhone Pro and iPhone Pro Plus.  Many analysts have written entire briefs on the products (two examples are Ars Technica here and CNET here), but there are three specific items that are worth emphasizing:

  1. Apple is going to be offering and aggressively advertising monthly financing for every iPhone purchased in-store or online. The manifestation of this is clearly seen in the new iPhone 11 display screen (picture nearby).  While this new detail may seem small, the fact that an after trade-in monthly price is shown (24 months, good credit at 0% a.p.r) is new for the Cupertino giant.  Previously, 24-month financing was only available if customers purchased the device and AppleCare+ (the premium was equal to the 2-year price of AppleCare+ divided by 24).  This com article describes the current Apple Store upgrade process; the good news is that Apple Payment and Apple Upgrade will exist side-by-side with the AppleCare+ upgrade.

 

  1. Apple is also going to accept devices for an instant top-dollar trade-in online and in-store. This is completely new and covers a wide range of Apple products (iPhone, iPad, Mac, etc.).  The structure of the trade-in (including the trade-in values used in the example) looks a lot like that used by Best Buy (who has a very good reputation for fair trade-in values).  It also appears that Best Buy is adding an extra activation bonus to their offer (see here), giving the Minnesota retailer the lowest entry point for equipment installment plan purchases (Sprint’s leasing plans are the lowest overall entry cost).

 

The instant nature of the trade-in contrasts with Verizon, who applies their “up to $500” value across 24-months (subtle, but Apple is taking the churn risk on the monthly payments up front) with a $200 prepaid card for those who switch from another carrier.

 

  1. The most surprising item (besides the overall price reduction of the iPhone 11) was the inclusion of CBRS (LTE Band 48) and Wi-Fi 6 (802.11ax) in all three devices. This, combined with eSIM functionality that started with last year’s models, sets the stage for increased use of licensed spectrum alternatives (see the September 1 TSB titled “CBRS – Share and Share Alike” for more details).  A great Light Reading article outlining Charter/ Spectrum’s use of eSIM to offload Verizon data traffic is here.

 

  1. It goes without saying, but the inclusion of a free year of Apple TV+ with every new iPhone purchased ($60 value) might tip the scales towards an immediate purchase.

Interestingly, there was no separate presentation focused on the Apple Card (although it was mentioned many times, including in Dierdre O’Brien’s presentation).  Our assumption is that Apple Card orders are plentiful and given Apple’s recent advertising push needed no additional on-stage fuel.

Our prediction still stands:  Soon, Apple Cards will be used to finance devices on 24-month installments and customers will be able to instantly apply their credit card usage perks to their monthly payment (perhaps with an additional kicker if it’s used for that purpose first).  This will create increased attractiveness for Apple Store (and online) purchases of the device and will boost retention at the expense of low/zero margin wireless carrier revenues.  While the short-term financial ramifications are positive for the carriers (and likely neutral for Apple), the long-term impact of removed “hook” to the customer will either drive wireless carrier churn higher or drive plans back to contracts.

 

The Elliott Management Memo:  Dominate, Divest, Dedicate, Deliver

As most of you know by now, Elliott Management went public with their concerns about AT&T through the www.activatingatt.com website and a 28-page memo that challenges nearly every major management decision made in the past decade.

While the tone is cordial, its uncharacteristic Southern “Bless Your Little Heart” gentility

jesse cohn pic

Jesse Cohn of Elliott Management

is thinly veneered.  As my senior English teacher, Joan Foley, prominently said: “Be what you are.” – Mr. Stephenson and the AT&T Board can take it.

The memo’s points are extremely well laid out, balanced, and challenging.  One would think that the Elliott Management team were long-time TSB readers with the stinging indictment of AT&T’s merger moves, content + connectivity strategy, and insular succession planning.  The result of this over the past 3 years was shown in the Mark Meeker presentation slide below (from the June 30 TSB – full post here):

global market cap leaders

 

While the immediate comparison to Verizon (#25) is damning (17% greater value created over the past three years than AT&T), the greater concern is that their suppliers (Samsung, Apple, Cisco) are exercising superior value gains (Samsung +50%, Apple +62%, Cisco +64%).

We don’t know every detail of the Elliott Management plan but believe that it’s definitely a good start.  AT&T has been playing a lot of “play not to lose” defense over the past decade; the “Bring the Bell Band back together” strategy of the 1990s and 2000s did not port to non-Bell acquisitions.  We would like to propose some slight amendments to Elliott Management’s strategy and propose structuring AT&T’s transformation around four elements:

  1. Dominate the wireline and wireless markets (and be bold about it). Where you are the incumbent local provider, be the most important player in connecting homes and buildings to mobile.  Leverage your local presence with widespread use of fiber that you have been supposedly been deploying for the past seven years (AT&T’s DNA is to think “One Fiber”).  Aggressively move away from legacy technologies – not because they are too costly, but because your customers desire mobility over stationary premise equipment.  Prioritize fiber above everything else, operate and care for it as if it’s the corporate crown jewel (it is), and deliver meaningful market share.  Value wireline.  Beat cable to a pulp.  Break out into a little Charlie Daniels: “We’re walking real loud and we’re talking real proud again.”

 

On the wireless front, leverage the FirstNet capacity discussed by John Stephens in August and allow customers who have 1080p devices to receive 1080p streaming for free.  This would force T-Mobile and Verizon to show their 480p hands and likely drive more upgrades to 1080p-capable devices.  Apply this to both Cricket and wholesale customers as well.

 

  1. Divest (or deal) where it makes sense. We think that Elliott Management is a bit too quick to declare DirecTV, Time Warner and AT&T Mexico as failures.  But it does make sense to decide whether Alarm.com, ADT or Vivint are better companies to serve the residential security market.  And, if AT&T can only implement their fiber strategy in metropolitan areas, sell off the more rural parts of the franchise (with very attractive DirecTV rates as a sweetener).  For example, here’s a map of the North Carolina local exchanges (full map is here):

nc exchange map

The olive-colored area is AT&T.  The remaining areas are not AT&T.  Follow cable’s moves of 25+ years ago and re-cluster the local exchange footprint.  Unless it’s an area where you can win with a fiber footprint or CBRS last mile, trade or sell, using DirecTV service price as a sweetener.  This will allow you to focus on winning (offense – fiber), not preserving (defense – DSL).

 

  1. Dedicate resources to convergence. We spent nearly an entire TSB two weeks ago talking about AT&T’s Domain 2.0/ SDN/ NFV moves (led by John Donovan and Jeff McElfresh).  Now that those efforts are largely underway (and AT&T is regarded as the leader), focus on using the entire suite of assets to deliver innovation.  An easy example:  Every bit of content that AT&T owns can be stored on any AT&T subscriber device as a part of their monthly service.  For example, if an HBO customer has a history of watching HBO through their mobile device, AT&T should ask if they can download the entire season to mobile ROM (storage) that evening.  This is what Pandora does with Thumbs Up Radio.  It might consume 2-3 Gigabytes, but the customer gets the entire season and AT&T’s streaming resources are not taxed.  AT&T should be more aggressive with each music provider about duplicating premium “save for offline” services (YouTube Premium does this in addition to Pandora).  And AT&T should allow customers to replay any (start with Time Warner) recording, selected or not, that was broadcasted in the last 24 hours through DirectTV or AT&T’s TV services.  This strategy may require more resources than merely product and marketing – a lot of legal action may be needed.  Cloud is cheap, and, with Microsoft and IBM as strategic partners, the lift just got a lot easier.

 

  1. Deliver brand promises. AT&T and IBM used to be known as the brands that “no one was ever fired for selecting.”  Times have changed, and Microsoft, Amazon, Cisco, Google, Netflix, Hulu, Verizon and others command an equal footing to Ma Bell and Big Blue depending on the market and the product.  Own the service standard for residential and business communications.  Fire or retire those suppliers/ partners/ employees who will only “play not to lose.”  Be known for going the extra mile and not cutting corners.

 

To beat Verizon, AT&T will need to leverage their larger local fiber footprint and the aforementioned Microsoft/ IBM/ Airship relationships.  To beat T-Mobile, AT&T will need to deliver 1080p services for the same price as 480p, use Time Warner and other content partnerships to deliver content efficiently and improve their in-store and web-based service.  To beat Comcast and Spectrum, AT&T will need to deliver more reliable broadband (with service guarantees) for 10-20% less.  To beat Dish, AT&T will need to build a more competitive video equation for rural markets.  All of these are possible, and all can be executed simultaneously with the right leadership.

Unlike Elliott, I think AT&T has several strong layers of strategic, smart leaders.  From within, they need a standard bearer who can rally each employee around a vision of “defeat and deliver – or get out.” If AT&T uses the Elliott memo to play more offense, their shareholders will cheer.

 

Next week, we will highlight some wireline trends and talk about overall profitability across the telecommunications sector.  Until then, if you have friends who would like to be on the email distribution, please have them send an email to sundaybrief@gmail.com and we will include them on the list.

 

Have a terrific week… and GO CHIEFS!

opening pic sept 15

Third Quarter Earnings – What Could Dislodge Wireless?

opening pic

Greetings from Charlotte, North Carolina (picture is, from left, Frank Cairon, formerly of Verizon Wireless and Ryan Barker, currently with Verizon Wireless enjoying some good Mexican food on Friday in the Queen City with yours truly).

 

This week’s TSB examines the short-term dynamics that could impact wireless growth in the third quarter and through the end of the year.  At the end of this week’s TSB we will also briefly examine the current state of litigations and investigations active and pending (T-Mobile/ Sprint, Facebook, and Google).

 

Follow-up to Last Week’s CBRS article

 

federated wireless logoBefore diving into earnings drivers, a quick shout out to Federated Wireless, who raised $51 million this week in a mammoth C Round financing (full announcement here).  Existing investors American Tower, Allied Minds, and GIC (Singapore sovereign wealth fund) all participated in the round, and Pennant Investors (Tim McDonald, formerly of Eagle River (Craig McCaw), will be joining the Federated board) and SBA joined with fresh cash.  Kudos to Federated CEO Iyad Tarazi for his continued leadership and perseverance.  With $51 million in additional cash, spectrum sharing gets a global boost.

 

In addition to this news, the FCC also has placed the approval and scheduling of the Private Access License auction (this is the dedicated band that gets priority over the General Authorized Access band) on the docket for June 2020 (FCC Commissioner Pai’s blog post is here).  It’s generally assumed that this means a C-Band auction will come at the end of 2020/ beginning of 2021 (although this week’s news that Eutelsat has withdrawn from the C-Band Alliance has some believing that there may be a side deal afoot).  The PAL auction timeline is in line with expectations, and it’s likely participants will include some new(ish) entrants.

 

Third Quarter Earnings – What Could Dislodge Wireless?

Speaking of expectations, there’re not a lot of dramatic changes expected in the wireless arena.  Consensus has T-Mobile leading the postpaid phone net additions race (no surprise), with Sprint struggling to keep pace, AT&T in the 0-300K range for postpaid phone thanks in large part to FirstNet gains, and Verizon, excluding cable MVNO revenues, growing their retail postpaid phone base only slightly.  With the exception of FirstNet (and a few quarters of decent Verizon growth), this is a pretty consistent story dating back to early 2017.  What events could change the equation and dislodge the current structure?

 

  1. More rapid AT&T postpaid phone net additions led by FirstNet. Here’s how AT&T CFO John Stephens summarized the relationship between spectrum rollout and FirstNet deployments at an investor conference in early August:

 

We had some AWS-3 and some WCS spectrum that we had, so to speak, in the warehouse that we hadn’t deployed. We had 700 spectrum, Band 14 from FirstNet, which the government was requiring us to deploy. And then we got a whole new set of technologies that were coming out, 256 QAM and 4-way MIMO and carrier aggregation. They were particularly important to us because of our diverse spectrum portfolio. So we got the FirstNet contract and we had to touch a tower, have to go out on the network. And we decided, with this contract, now is the time to, so to speak, do everything. Put all the spectrum in service, that’s the 60 megahertz. In some towers, it’s 50, some towers, it’s 60, but it’s 60 megahertz of new spectrum that was generally unused that we’re putting in.

 

This has the effect of increased costs, but also improved network performance.  With 350,000 net additions already from FirstNet (Stephens disclosed this in the same conference), it’s entirely possible that they could post a 100K net add surprise due to increased coverage and deployments.  In turn, improved wireless bandwidth, while driving up costs, should lower churn in areas like Detroit (RootMetrics overall winner in a tie with Verizon – first since 2012), and Boston (first RootMetrics overall win in Bean Town since 2017).

 

  1. Faster cable MVNO growth. While this week’s news was on Altice’s aggressive $20 unlimited price point for existing customers (great analysis on their strategy here), both Charter and Comcast see a lot of mover activity in the third quarter.  This would seem to be a very good time to present their wireless offer.  Here’s a chart of net additions by both Charter and Comcast for the past two years:

cable mobile net additions trend chart

While the two largest cable providers accounted for ~390K growth in 2Q (and over 1.3 million net additions growth over the last four quarters), there’s a strong likelihood that this figure could grow even greater as the attractiveness of the wireless bundle pricing takes effect.   Both Spectrum and Comcast are maturing their service assurance processes, and those efforts should lower churn.

 

Comcast also made a number of changes to their “By the Gig” plans which encourage this option for multi-line plans that use 2-6 Gigabytes per line per month (and therefore use a lot of Xfinity Wi-Fi services).  It basically amounts to a prepayment for overage services, but could be attractive for certain segments/ demographics (full details on these offer changes are here).  Charter did not follow the Comcast changes described in the link and their “By the Gig” pricing continues to be $2/ mo / gigabyte higher.

 

Both Comcast and Charter are running into Apple iPhone announcement headwinds if next week’s headlines meet expectations (no 5G, no CBRS, no special financing deals, better camera).  If the changes do not increase willingness to upgrade/ change to an iPhone, it’s going to be very difficult to craft a cable plan (even $20/ mo.) that will buck the trend.  The upgrade cycle will be extended to 4Q 2020, when both the carriers and Comcast/ Charter will have full access to 5G.

 

Our prediction is that Charter and Comcast will have 475-500K net additions in the third quarter thanks to a combination of lower churn and higher gross additions (led by increased moving activity).  Altice’s offer will add another 70K net additions in September, with those gains coming from Sprint retail and, to a lesser extent, T-Mobile retail and wholesale (Tracfone).

 

  1. T-Mobile’s 600 MHz coverage (and gross add) improvements. As T-Mobile, Sprint, and the state Attorneys General try to find a resolution to their quagmire, T-Mobile keeps on deploying 600 MHz spectrum.  Here’re their reported (through Q2 2019) and estimated (Q3/Q4) progress:

t-mobile 600 MHz chart

Every new device on the T-Mobile.com website (and every T-Mobile store) is 600 MHz/ LTE Band 71 capable.  Many older devices are not, however, and that is preventing greater market share gains in secondary and tertiary geographies (many/ most BYOD Android devices from AT&T, for example, will have the 700 MHz but not have the 600 MHz band).  The expected Apple announcement represents a slight headwind for T-Mobile as well.

There’s a natural gross add/ upgrade path that follows 145 million coverage growth over a 12-month period.  Assuming T-Mobile keeps their churn rate at 0.8%/ month over 3Q (2.4% of the ending branded postpaid 2Q base would be ~1.07 million disconnections), they have grown their 600 MHz marketable base by 20 million from Q1 to Q2 and by another 50 million from Q2 to Q3.  If they just grew their penetration in the 600 MHz band by 1.5% for Q1-Q3 incremental POPs (or 0.5% penetration for the entire estimated 3Q 2019 footprint), they would negate the entire estimated branded postpaid churn for the rest of the country.  This ex-urban/ rural growth opportunity is unique to T-Mobile and would at the expense of AT&T and Verizon.

Offsetting the 600MHz growth is small cell progress.  T-Mobile committed at the beginning of the year to deploy 20,000 incremental small cells in 2019, but that guidance was withdrawn in their Q2 Factbook with H1 growth of only 1,000.  That leaves a very large backlog of in-process capital (excluding capitalized interest, total capital spending was $3.48 billion vs an estimated spending range at the high end of $5.4 – $5.7 billion).  T-Mobile should spend at least $2.2 billion in capital spending in the second half of 2019 on 5G, 600 MHz, and other initiatives and will undoubtedly be left with a lot of in-process small cell deployments.

 

  1. Sprint’s prepaid and postpaid churn. There’re a lot of headwinds for Sprint in the third quarter – overall 2Q churn trends are higher than previous year’s, and no one expects the seasonal respite to last long.  It’s likely that 3Q postpaid churn could exceed 1.85%, led by postpaid phone churn of a similar level (look for late September promotional activity).

 

Prepaid churn is a bit tougher to forecast and will also be tracked closely.  If the postpaid churn comes in below 2Q levels, check the prepaid recategorizations to postpaid (they were 116K in Q2 and 129K in Q1).  Both prepaid and reclassified postpaid accounts will be transferred to Dish assuming the merger goes through, but it makes the postpaid headline number more palatable.

 

The 30-day guarantee promotion, according to most reports, has been an ineffective switching tool.  (Sprint’s 5G rollout success has been much more impactful).  Expect Sprint to say very little until there is clarity on the litigation, and to post greater than expected losses in prepaid subscribers as they preserve their marketing dollars for a post-merger world.

 

Litigation Tracker:  Why the Facebook, Google, and T-Mobile/ Sprint cases are not all the same

Speaking of litigation and investigation, we were very dismayed that media sources are choosing to lump the New York-led Facebook investigation announced Friday, the to be announced Texas-led Google investigation, and the on-going T-Mobile/ Sprint (TMUS/S) litigation into one mega-story.  While there are some similarities, the upcoming Google action is broader than Facebook and more bipartisan than the TMUS/S complaint.

As most of you who are following the TMUS/S suit know, the states of Oregon and Illinois recently joined the original 14 states and the District of Columbia to block the merger.  (As an aside, Fox Business is reporting that the state AG group is focusing on the inexperience and shaky financial condition of Dish Networks as opposed to what would have been an uphill market concentration battle).  In fact, in the original TSB concerning the lawsuit (here), we were surprised by the absence of Illinois.  The figure below shows who is involved in what (underlined states are named in the Facebook litigation):

litigation tracker chart

To recap, there are 40 states + the District of Columbia named in the National Association of Attorneys General comment letter to the FTC (filing here), and at least 30 of them are joining a Texas-led lawsuit against Google to be announced early this week.

The makeup of the states in the FTC letter is very bipartisan:  14 Republican and 26 Democrat attorneys general.  All of the states involved in the TMUS/S litigation are also named in the FTC comment letter.  To contrast, of the 17 states in the TMUS/S litigation, only Texas (AT&T HQ) is Republican and the other 16 are Democrat.

As we stated in the TSB on the AG lawsuit, very few sparsely-populated states, regardless of political affiliation, are participating in the T-Mobile/ Sprint litigation.  Fourteen of the fifteen least densely populated states in the US (data here) are named in the Google/ FTC letter.  However, only two of the fourteen (Colorado, Oregon) are participating in the TMUS/S litigation.  The promise of a rural solution outweighs the benefits of a fourth carrier in metropolitan and suburban areas.

The Facebook investigation is also widely bipartisan with five Democrats and four Republican states represented.  Florida is involved in the Facebook investigation but none of the other two legal activities.  In addition, there are nine states (including New Jersey, a Democrat stronghold) that are not currently participating in any legal activity.

Bottom Line:  Concerns about Google’s anti-competitive practices are supported by a large number of state Attorneys General and are very bipartisan.  A subsegment of Democrat AGs (and TX) is also a part of the T-Mobile/ Sprint lawsuit.  And an even smaller subsegment plus Florida is a part of the recently announced Facebook investigation.

Next week, we will highlight some wireline trends and talk about overall profitability across the telecommunications sector.  Until then, if you have friends who would like to be on the email distribution, please have them send an email to sundaybrief@gmail.com and we will include them on the list.

 

Have a terrific week… and GO CHIEFS!

Deeper: CBRS – Share and Share Alike

cbrs top 10 slide

The following articles provide a good overview of CBRS.  There are a lot of things changing with CBRS each day, and we will be sure to keep the list updated as new developments occur.

  1. One of the best government sites is the NTIA CBRS page here. Included in this is the original NTIA October 2010 Fast Track Report cited in this week’s TSB
  2. The FCC Report and Order on CBRS from 2015 is here.
  3. This Ruckus on-line tutorial is a terrific place to start if you need a 20-minute high level overview of CBRS.
  4. The CBRS Alliance has a page devoted to certified devices that is updated frequently. The latest certified devices are here.
  5. Light Reading had a recent article summarizing AT&T’s, US Cellular’s and Verizon’s outdoor interests. It’s here.
  6. Charter’s SVP Technology Craig Cowden’s address at MCWA in 2018 is here (20 min). A good summary of the value of CBRS to the cable industry.  Charter’s FCC application for their CBRS tests is here.
  7. Adam Koeppe’s June interview with RCR Wireless concerning 5G, CBRS, MIMO, Beamforming and more is here. The Light Reading article referenced in the TSB is here.
  8. A good summary of MIdCo’s 2018/ 2019 trial with Telrad and Federated Wireless from Fierce Wireless is here.
  9. Telecompetitor interview with Federated Wireless CEO Iyad Tarazi is here. In this article, Iyad describes Federated’s role in the Kinetic Edge Alliance, which we ran out of time to discuss and is a very interesting intersection point between computing, proximity, and network sharing.  More on that group here.

CBRS – Share and Share Alike

opening pic

Greetings from Lake Norman/ Davidson, North Carolina, where the college football season has started.  We took in the Davidson College home opener and the Wildcats (red jerseys) defeated Georgetown 27-20 to a crowd of more than 2,300.  It was an exciting part of the Labor Day weekend and a good win for the Cats.

 

This week’s Sunday Brief focuses on the potential of Citizens Broadband Radio Service (CBRS) to change the telecommunications landscape.  We will also have an update on C-Band spectrum auction news.  First, however, a quick follow up to last week’s article on AT&T’s system and network architecture changes.

 

Follow-up to last week’s AT&T article

We had greater than expected interest concerning last week’s TSB including receiving several background articles that we had not uncovered in our research.  One of the most important of these was a blog post by AT&T Senior Vice President Chris Rice on their Domain 2.0 developments that was posted on August 21.  In this article, Chris describes their major architectural change:

 

We started on a path for a single cloud, called AT&T Integrated Cloud (AIC). This was our private cloud, meaning we managed all the workloads and infrastructure within it. Originally, AIC housed both our network and several of our “non-network” IT workloads and applications.

But we quickly learned it wasn’t optimal to combine both types of workloads on a single cloud. It required too many compromises, and the IT and network workloads needed different profiles of compute, network and storage.

We opted for a better approach: Create a private cloud for our network workloads, optimize it for those workloads, and drive the software definition and virtualization of our network through this cloud approach and through the use of white boxes for specific switching and routing functions.

 

The change to last week’s article is subtle but not insubstantial:  AT&T’s network cloud (formerly AIC) is optimized for network traffic loads and functions (but still built on white box/ generic switching and routing), while non-network functions are operated in the public cloud through Microsoft and IBM.

 

john-donovanIt’s important to note that the executive champion of this cloud strategy, John Donovan, is going to be retiring from AT&T on October 1 (announcement here).  We have included an early speech he gave on AT&T’s Domain 2.0 strategy in the Deeper post on the website.  John brought engineering discipline to AT&T’s management, and, while the parlor game of his replacement has begun, the magnitude of his contributions to Ma Bell over the past 11+ years should not go unnoticed.

 

CBRS – Share and Share Alike

When we put together a list of Ten Telecom Developments Worth Following in mid-July (available on request), we were surprised by a broad range of CBRS skepticism in the analyst community, especially given the breadth of US wireless carriers playing in the CBRS alliance.  “Nice feature” or “science experiment” was the general reaction.  Many of you chose instead to focus on the C-Band auctions, which are important and addressed below.

 

After some reflection, we have come to the conclusion that the most important feature of CBRS is neither its mid-band position (3.5 GHz), nor the mid-band spectrum gap it fills for Verizon Wireless (more on that below), but the fact that at times all of the spectrum band can be shared.  Customers receive the benefits of an LTE band without a costly auction process.

 

If you are intimately familiar with CBRS, you can skip the next couple of paragraphs.  For those of you new to TSB or the industry, here’s a copy of the slide we used to describe CBRS in the Ten Telecom Developments presentation to start your education:

cbrs top 10 slide

 

 

The commercialization of shared LTE bands is pioneering and one of the reasons why it has taken nearly a decade to move from concept to commercialization (the original NTIA report which identified the CBRS opportunity is here).  This does not appear to be a singular experiment, however, as Europe is proceeding with shared spectrum plans of their own in the 2.3-2.4 GHz frequencies (more on that here).

 

To enable this sharing mechanism in the United States, a system needed to be developed that would prioritize existing users (namely legacy on-ship Navy radar systems) yet allow for full use of the network for General Authorized Access (GAA) users when prioritization was not necessary (opening up to 150 MHz of total spectrum for GAA which could power 5G speeds for tens of millions of devices nationwide).  A great primer on how CBRS generally works and how spectrum sharing is performed is available here from Ruckus, a CommScope company and one of five Spectrum Access System providers.

It’s important to note that the Environmental Sensing Capability (which determines usage by priority) and the Spectrum Access System (which authorizes, allocates and manages users) are two different yet interoperable pieces of the CBRS puzzle.  And, while the ESC providers have been approved by the NITA (CommScope, Google, and Federated Wireless), the SAS providers have not been approved (more on that here in this Light Reading article).  While all of the SAS providers have not been made public, it’s widely assumed that they include the three ESC providers mentioned above.

 

Delays in the SAS approval process have not kept the CBRS Alliance from heavily promoting a commercial service launch on September 18 (news release here).  This event will feature FCC Commissioner Michael O’Rielly, Adam Koeppe from Verizon, Craig Cowden from Charter, and others who will celebrate the Alliance achievements to date and place the development as a central theme going into 2020.

 

CBRS Use Cases:  Not Everyone is Waiting for Private Licenses

The myriad of CBRS use cases mirror the different strategies for telecommunications industry players.  Here are four ways carriers are using CBRS in trials today:

 

  1. CBRS as a last mile solution for rural locations (AT&T and rural cable providers MidCo Communications mapMidCo and Mediacom Communications). In the MidCo configuration, outdoor Citizens Band Service Devices or CBSDs (see picture above) are placed in proximity to potential (farm) homes passed (see nearby map of MidCo territories in the Dakotas and Minnesota).  Per their recent tests, MidCo was able to connect homes up to eight miles from the outdoor CBSD.  They estimate that CBRS will add tens of thousands of homes and businesses to their footprint (they serve 400K today so every 10K new customers is meaningful).  Good news for an over the top service like Hulu, Netflix, and YouTube TV and bad news for DirecTV and Dish.

 

AT&T has been testing CBRS as a similar “last mile solution” in Ohio and Tennessee using equipment from several providers including CommScope (ESC, SAS) as well as Samsung (network).  These trials are expected to wrap up in October.  If AT&T can find a more effective last mile solution for copper-based DSL in rural areas, revenues and profitability will grow (by how much depends on Connect America Fund subsidies and service affordability).

 

AT&T has been mum on their trial progress to date.  In June, however, AT&T asked the FCC to allow them to turn up antenna power in these markets to test various ranges and speeds (bringing the power allowances to a similar level of the WCS spectrum that AT&T already owns and operates in the 2.3 GHz spectrum frequency).  This was met with strong opposition by a coalition of providers, and it’s not clear that AT&T’s request was ultimately granted.  More on the AT&T request and response can be found in their FCC filing here, and in this June 2019 RCR Wireless article.

 

  1. CBRS as an additional LTE service for cable MVNOs (Altice, Charter, Comcast). It’s no secret that cable companies are eager to continue to grow their wireless presence within their respective footprints (and corporate is equally as eager to improve profitability and single carrier dependency).  CBRS would add a secure option that is seamlessly interoperable with other LTE bands to create an alternative to their current providers (Verizon, Sprint, etc.).  It also provides a new “secure wireless” service for small and medium-sized businesses which can be deployed with Wi-Fi.  A cheaper alternative for out-of-home wireless data?  Count cable in.

 

We spent some time a few weeks ago talking about the evolution of Verizon plans, specifically how their cheapest unlimited plan now includes no prioritized high-speed data (article here).  Is CBRS a better alternative to deprioritized LTE?

 

The short answer is “not yet.”  LTE Band 48 is only available across the most expensive devices, and, presumably, if customers can shell out $1000-1500 for a new device, they can probably afford extra LTE data allowances above 22-25 Gigabytes (see previous article linked above).  Notably, the new Moto E6 (budget-minded Android device) includes neither CBRS nor Wi-Fi 6 (specs here).  The new ZTE Axon 10 Pro phone does not include Band 48 or Wi-Fi 6 (specs here).  The OnePlus 7 Pro, however, does include Band 48 but not Wi-Fi 6 (specs here).  And, if rumors are to be believed, the upcoming Apple device announcement in a couple of weeks will disappoint everyone – no 5G, no CBRS even though the new device will likely support the 3.5GHz spectrum band in Japan, and likely no Wi-Fi 6 (which is why the Apple Card will likely be used to offer attractive financing options).

 

This leaves cable companies with a good selection of Samsung and Google devices that can use CBRS (Galaxy Note 10, Galaxy S10 5G, upgraded Pixel 3X and 3XL, and likely the upcoming Galaxy 11 release).  For cable to win on this front, they may need to provide plan incentives to influence the pace of upgrades and request this band for Moto and low-end Samsung devices.

 

  1. CBRS as a mid-band LTE outdoors/ public venue solution for Verizon. It is no secret that Verizon is going to use CBRS GAA as a part of their carrier aggregation solution (see this August 2019 article from Light Reading for more details). Such a solution is usually not designed for greater throughput in rural markets alone – Verizon clearly sees some form of CBRS as a portion of their overall licensed/ un-licensed solutions portfolio.

 

The question that will be answered in the next quarter or so is whether CBRS is valuable enough to be a part of Verizon’s licensed portfolio (e.g., they buy 20 or 30 MHz worth of private CBRS licenses, or whether they use the GAA portion in the same License Assisted Access (LAA) manner as they use 5.0 GHz Wi-Fi).  It’s likely that if CBRS is important, they will be at the auction table.

 

It appears that the C-Band (3.7-4.2 GHz) license quantity and auction schedule is in flux, if the latest report from Light Reading (and the corresponding New Street Research analysis references in the article) is true.  This also impacts Verizon’s near-term interest in CBRS PALs.

 

Verizon’s interest is important as they can drive manufacturers to quickly include Band 48 in devices.

 

  1. CBRS as an indoor and/or private LTE solution for wireline. One lesser-discussed option for CBRS is as a private LTE indoor solution for enterprises and building owners.  While we touched on this option for cable companies (who will undoubtedly drive business ecosystem development), this could also have ruckus cbrs routerinteresting implications for companies like CenturyLink (Level3), Masergy, and Windstream.  Ruckus, a traditional Wi-Fi solutions provider now owned by CommScope, already has an indoor unit for sale here (picture nearby).  The implications for in-building coverage are significant because 3.5 GHz does not overlap with existing deployed frequencies (including existing 2.4 GHz and 5.2 GHz Wi-Fi solutions), and, as a result, will not increase interference that deploying an AWS (1.7/ 2.1 GHz) or EBS/BRS (2.5 GHz) might create.  With solutions as cheap as industrial Wi-Fi and minimal interference concerns, there might be more value created with CBRS indoors than outdoors.

 

Bottom line:  CBRS is a real solution for rural broadband deployments and will attract the interest of large and small rural providers.  CBRS will be important to wireless carriers when Samsung and Apple join Google and Facebook in building a robust ecosystem.  This is a good/great but not an industry-changing technology.  If the first commercial applications are successful in 2019 (the odds are good), demand for Private Licenses will be significant (if not, expect more pressure to resolve C-Band spectrum allocation issues quickly).

 

What makes CBRS great is dynamic spectrum sharing among carriers.  Should that continue with all new frequencies auctioned (including C-Band), you should expect to see competitive pressures grow in the sector, particularly with private LTE/ indoor applications.

 

Next week we will provide the first of two third quarter earnings previews, focusing on wireless service providers ahead of the Apple event.  Until then, if you have friends who would like to be on the email distribution, please have them send an email to sundaybrief@gmail.com and we will include them on the list.

 

Have a terrific week!

 

UPDATED – Deeper: The Apple Card – A Wolf in (Titanium) Sheep’s Clothing?

apple card examples

 

The following articles provide a good overview of the Apple Card and the possible role it could play in the disintermediation of traditional wireless carrier phone payments.  Please note:  This is an emerging trend and not a “done deal” and it’s likely that this thread will be updated several times in the next few months.  Look for more when Apple launches their next generation of iPhones, likely in September:

  1. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s (CFPB) report on the state of the consumer credit market is discussed in this week’s TSB. Very useful information, although it’s a bit dated (2016).   Link to full report is in the article and also here.
  2. Link to the actual announcement of the Apple Card last March is here. Apple Pay/ Apple Card discussion starts at 23:59.
  3. CNBC article from August 9 describing the fact that Apple was offering the Apple Card to as many current Apple users as possible. Goldman Sachs is applying many learnings from their Marcus (consumer banking) product to make the Apple Card as broad as possible.
  4. Ken Segall’s blog post “The Ghost of Apple Card Past” that is referenced in TSB is here.
  5. Bloomberg article that explores Apple Card’s Terms and Conditions and reports that Apple may have additional financing options in mind with this product.
  6. Wall Street Journal review of the Apple Card (detailed and thorough). A subscription may be required.
  7. To get an idea of where Apple Card could go, have a look at the current My Best Buy financing options. Remember – Best Buy is not a manufacturer – Apple should be able to provide even better offers.
  8. Mastercard CEO Craig Vosburg CNBC interview on the Apple/ Goldman Sachs/ Mastercard relationship is here.
  9. CNBC article quoting yours truly as well as Craig Moffett on the impact the card could have on the carrier community is here.

Deeper – Fiber Always Wins (Until it Doesn’t)

Mission Hills notice on Google Fiber

The following articles provide a good overview of the role fiber plays in the telecommunications ecosystem today (there’s some good details on Google Kansas City and Louisville setbacks as well):

  1. An RCR Wireless article that details Verizon’s “integrated engineering process.” It also has some details on the fiber deal with Corning.
  2. Corning (Bob Whitman) and Verizon (Glenn Wellbrock) conversations from YouTube part 1 and part 2.
  3. Altice press release announcing first homes on Long Island to receive 960 Mbps symmetrical speeds for $80/ month.
  4. Google missing their deployment goals for Kansas City, KS and Mission Hills, KS
  5. Telecompetitor AT&T Fiber penetration article in which they talk about doubling market share. The map see in the article (AT&T Fiber cities) is here.
  6. Cincinnati Bell 2Q investor penetration showing that AT&T’s goal of achieving 50% market share is entirely possible with the right content bundles (they are at 44% without the content – see page 7).
  7. Blair Levin’s and Larry Downs Harvard Business Review article on Why Google Fiber failed and how it’s really a success in disguise. Rationalization gone awry.  This might have been the case if their more recent deployments had not damaged their brand.
  8. Local (Louisville Courier-Journal) coverage of Google’s decision to pull out of the Louisville market is here.
  9. Google’s plans to expand their Webpass (60 GHz wireless hub and spoke) service for Multi-Dwelling Units Austin is outlined here.
  10. The Dallas Morning News rant on Frontier’s failures is a classic and outlined here.